The US Open has a roof.
Finally, after years of rain delays that tampered with the schedule, seven years after Wimbledon introduced its own roof, a new $150 million retractable roof will make its debut over Arthur Ashe Stadium this year. But underneath the spanking new facility, you could be forgiven for mistaking the venue for a chaotic hospital emergency room.
Coming into the year’s final grand slam, the men’s field in particular resembles an army of wounded and battle-fatigued soldiers. This time of the year is always rife with retirements due to heat-induced ailments on the hard courts of North America or injuries after a long, grinding summer. But 2016 has taken the top players’ health concerns to another level. Leading the crippled crew is Roger Federer, who will miss the US Open for the first time since 1999. Two others among the Big Four are going into the event with nagging injuries.
The lead-up to the major, the US Open Series, which bestows bonus points and bonus prize money upon players, is a fairly good indicator of form and momentum. This year’s series, played across Canada and the United States, was impacted severely by injuries. An already packed schedule was further crammed by the Olympic Games. Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Rafa Nadal were all absent from the Rogers Cup in Toronto in July, the first two choosing to skip because of lingering injuries, and the Brit claiming extreme exhaustion.
The main contenders
Next came the Olympics. Djokovic lost in the first round to a resurgent Juan Martin Del Potro. The match reduced both men to tears, indicating just how much the Games mean to tennis players. Following the loss, the world No. 1 announced that he was going to skip the rest of the warm up events due to a lingering left wrist injury that made it hard for him to execute his backhand. A few days ago he said, "I'm doing everything in my power, with obviously the medical team, to make sure that I'm as close to 100% as possible during the course of this tournament…at least for the beginning of it." That hardly sounds promising. In the first round to be played on Monday, Djokovic faces hard hitting Jerzy Janowicz of Poland, who reached the Wimbledon semis in 2013 and could give him a little trouble. It will be important to gauge Djokovic’s form in the first couple of rounds. Should he get past them, and start to feel more confident, he will still be a top contender for the title. However, for once, this is by no means a given.
If Djokovic has trouble playing his normal backhand, then Nadal has trouble with his forehand. He has played all season with a left wrist injury just like his Serbian arch rival. Nadal willed himself to compete in Rio, where he carried Spain’s flag in the opening ceremony and competed in the singles, doubles, and mixed doubles events. He reached the semi-finals in the singles, and won the gold medal in doubles, a triumph that left him ecstatic. However, the intense schedule in Rio, following a period of two-and-a-half months with almost no practice, left him feeling wiped out. He lost easily to teenager Bornia Coric of Croatia in Cincinnati. His fitness is in serious doubt this year and no one is giving him a serious chance.
The latter half of 2016 has, perhaps a little unexpectedly, seen one player dominate the men’s field. Andy Murray, back together with coach Ivan Lendl, won both Wimbledon and the singles gold medal at the Olympics. Even though he has shown some signs of fatigue, he does not appear to have any visible injury, and is a tremendous player on hard courts. To my mind, he is the favorite going into the Open.
The challengers
But unlike other slams in recent years, this one is more wide open. A few other players could reach the final and win the whole thing. Two of these are former US Open champions, Marin Cilic and Juan Martin del Potro. Both of them failed to follow up their US Open victories (in 2009 and 2014 respectively) with more success, partly due to injuries. This season, it’s been heartening to see Del Potro, the gentle giant from Argentina, recover some of his best form. In Rio, he defeated both Djokovic and Nadal before losing in the final to Murray. His emotional display throughout the event demonstrated what it meant to him to finally come back to the top after being sidelined by health problems for a few years.
Meanwhile, Marin Cilic beat Murray in the final of the the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati to claim his first Masters Series title. They are both feeling confident and are determined to make up for lost time. Del Potro could meet Murray in the quarter-finals in New York, while Cilic could meet Djokovic. Watch out for both these big men to stake their claims on a second US Open title.
The other two likely to make a deep run are Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic. Nishikori won the Olympic bronze medal and the US Open Series. Nishikori seems to have regained some of the form that got him to the US Open final two years ago. Both he and this year’s Wimbledon finalist, Raonic, have long been hailed as two of the new generation’s strongest challengers to the Big Four. With all the health problems plaguing the others, this could be an opportune moment for them.
I predict that one of the men already mentioned here (with the exception of Nadal) is going to win this year’s title on the men’s side. But the match to watch out for in the first round will be between Spain’s Fernando Verdasco and Switzerland’s Stan Wawrinka. The world No. 3 has not had a great season and faces a tough hard court player in the Spaniard, who might have the slight edge in New York.
In another interesting match-up, 16th seed Feliciano Lopez, the 34-year-old veteran, faces Borna Coric. The Croatian defeated Nick Kyrgios and Nadal back-to-back in Cincinnati and is one of the men’s game’s rising young stars. For Indian fans, there is a rare chance of seeing one of their countrymen in action on the very first day of the tournament, as qualifier Saketh Myneni takes on the Czech Republic’s Jiri Vesely. Myneni, ranked 143 in the world, has qualified for a grand slam for the first time in his career. Even though he is unlikely to get past the tall Czech, his effort in qualifying should not go unnoticed.
For the past few years, men’s tennis has been quite predictable, with Djokovic usually a firm favorite. To put things in perspective, since 2005, only three men outside the Big Four have won a Grand Slam. But for the first time in a long long time, the title really appears to be up for grabs. Men’s tennis is alive again.
Oindrila Mukherjee tweets here.