The worst-kept secret in Formula One is finally out. Valtteri Bottas has joined the Mercedes AMG-F1 as Lewis Hamilton’s new teammate, replacing retired 2016 world champion Nico Rosberg. Christmas just went by three weeks ago, but the Finn will be happy to thank Santa Claus nevertheless.
First, let us get the obvious implications out of the way. Bottas was the easiest option. He is mentored by Mercedes’ team boss Toto Wolff (who was also his manager, but will have to give that up now as per team guidelines), and thanks to his relationship with Williams Racing, there was no doubt that he would go in for the Finn. The deal however could not be completed in December.
Since then, Paddy Lowe has moved on from his role as executive technical director at Mercedes and will join Williams. Mercedes are also their engine suppliers, so Williams will have got a sweet deal in that department as well. The one roadblock in this exchange of personnel was procuring a second driver for the Grove-based British team. They had signed 18-year-old Lance Stroll to drive for them in 2017, but needed an older second driver to fulfil their agreements with sponsor Martini. As such, Felipe Massa comes out of retirement after bidding a tearful goodbye in Brazil and Abu Dhabi.
Was Bottas the best option for Mercedes?
To put it simply, yes. Rosberg’s late announcement meant that Mercedes did not have enough time to secure a top-rated driver. The likes of Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso, Daniel Ricciardo and even Max Verstappen are all locked in watertight contracts with their respective teams. Even Nico Hulkenberg signed early on with Renault for 2017, thus putting him out of luck once again. Pursuing any of these names would have meant spending a lot of time and money, and it would not have necessarily led to the requisite outcome.
Barring Hulkenberg, almost all of them publicly expressed their disinclination to join Mercedes. Wolff though did tease that he was getting phone calls from many drivers. It is an interesting mix, because barring Ricciardo and Verstappen, it can be concluded that Vettel and Alonso would have wanted to move if not for their contracts.
Red Bull are anticipating a jump in both engine and aerodynamic performance for 2017, and hope to be in the mix with Mercedes challenging for the title. With the rules changing for this season, leaning more toward aerodynamic efficiency, it is understandable if Ricciardo and Verstappen were not too eager to jump ship for they would have been closely monitoring the 2017 car’s development. There is a school of thought that says Pascal Wehrlein should have been promoted to partner Hamilton, instead of shipping him off to Sauber.
It is amply clear though that Mercedes were not willing to gamble on an amateur driver with one-year experience in F1, either to take the fight to Hamilton, or indeed be in the mix with consistent point-scoring performances should Red Bull (or Ferrari even) step up to challenge them.
Bottas have been given a one-year deal leaving the door open for Mercedes to fish for 2018. Sure, there could be a contract extension if he does go on to replicate even part of Rosberg’s sensational drive last year. But both Alonso and Vettel will be out of contract by the end of 2017. Another winless season with Ferrari, or another year at McLaren loitering at the back of the grid with a poor Honda engine, might prompt either of them to exercise their options and talk to Mercedes.
What does this mean for Bottas – and Hamilton?
Bottas has followed in Rosberg’s footsteps in switching from Williams to Mercedes. The German raced 70 times for the former and finished on the podium twice before he moved in 2010. Bottas has raced for Williams 78 times and has nine podiums to his credit.
There is a bit of criticism herein for the Finn. Six of his nine podium finishes came in 2014, when Williams opted for Mercedes power and ended their deal for Renault engines. Since then, Red Bull and Ferrari have adapted better to the prevalent engine formula and Williams have gone backwards. In that sense, it is better to compare them with Force India, who also use Mercedes power and have gone upwards to finish fourth in the constructors’ standings.
Owing to his car’s downward spiral, Bottas, with only three podiums in 2015 and 2016, seemed to hit a plateau in performance as well. It was the reason why Ferrari ignored him and opted to resign Kimi Raikkonen last year. At Mercedes, Bottas will surely enjoy a superior car, always racing at the front of the grid or thereabouts. It will put him in contention for wins, a step up from Williams. Can he make it count though?
This is where Hamilton and his immense 2016 battle with Rosberg come into focus. The retired German was by no means a second-rate driver, but he just could not get the better of his teammate for a long time. He had to muster every ounce of mental strength to get himself over the finish line, ahead of Hamilton, last year. So much so that it left him drained to the extent of calling it a day.
It took years and years for Rosberg to build that resistance to Hamilton’s aura – a combination of pure racing skills and the willpower to never give up, to the extent of backing up his team-mate in that season-finale in Abu Dhabi. Does Bottas have that quality? Even if he does, can he hit the straps from the word go and compete with Hamilton from the Australian Grand Prix, without taking up time to bed in with his new team?
The best chance for Bottas to do this is if he has other teams in the mix regularly for victories. He needs Red Bull and Ferrari to be competitive, and needs the likes of Vettel, Ricciardo, Verstappen and Raikkonen to get to the British driver. Otherwise, if it is once again a two-horse race between the Mercedes drivers, expect a wounded – and glory-hungry – Hamilton to run away with the title.