The term “six pointer” often gets thrown around to describe a certain football match. What that means is that the match in question is doubly important to the teams involved. These matches involve direct rivals – the big six in the Premier League (Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur) and the top three in the Spanish La Liga (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid).
However these six pointers are not restricted only to the teams battling it out for the right to be called champions, they also lend themselves to the teams fighting to remain in the top flight – the relegation candidates. In fact, one might say that given the dearth of points accumulated by the teams towards the foot of the table, the points accrued against their direct rivals might even have a more significant impact.
On the face of it, each win is worth three points, so are any matches actually doubly important? Does beating your closest rivals give you a better chance of avoiding relegation? Does it give you a better chance of lifting the trophy at the end of the season? I have looked to answer both these questions while looking at the results from matches played out between the last three completed seasons in the English Premier League and Spanish La Liga.
Beating the drop
There are often several teams scrapping it out near the bottom of the table to avoid being relegated to the lower division. We often see teams prioritise matches against their fellow strugglers. During the end of the season, we sometimes even see managers pick a weakened squad for a match against a supposedly bigger club so that the best players stay fresh for a match which is perceived to be a better source of points.
The table below looks at results between the bottom five teams from the past three seasons in the Premier League and La Liga and try to see if there is a relation between beating your relegation threatened rivals and avoiding the drop. All points are out of a possible 24 points (two fixtures against four other teams give a total of eight fixtures and thus 24 points).
2013-’14 season
2014-’15 season
2015-’16 season
What is interesting to see is that the team gathering the most number of points in this mini league has been relegated in three out of the six instances- both instances in 2014-‘15, and Osasuna in 2013-‘14. In fact, Osasuna took a mind boggling 17 points out of a possible 24 and were still not able to avoid relegation. Cardiff City in 2013-‘14 clearly put all their eggs in this basket, taking half their total points (15 out of 30) from this mini league, but still finished 6 points away from safety.
An argument to the contrary can even be made while citing the examples of Sporting Gijon in 2016 and Sunderland in 2014-‘15. Both teams took by far the fewest points (four and six respectively) against these teams but still avoided relegation.
As can be seen, beating your follow strugglers is not a foolproof strategy to avoiding relegation. In all six instances, even getting 50% of the points (12) from these fixtures led to relegation. Points against your closest rivals are not a guarantee for survival.
Winning like a champion
Is there a similar conclusion for eventual champions? We look at meetings between the top six in the Premier League (Leicester City included in 2015-‘16), and between the three aforementioned clubs in the La Liga. There are 30 points (36 in 2015-‘16) on offer in the Premier League.
2013-’14 season
2014-’15 season
2015-’16 season
Contrary to the mini league with relegation sides, the above tables show us that beating your other title contenders is necessary for being champions. There is no way that you can have an abysmal record against your nearest opponents and still hope to win the title. The teams sitting in the bottom two in this mini league in the Premier League, have never finished higher than fourth.
There is a caveat, though. Doing well against these teams is a necessary condition but it is not in itself a sufficient condition. During all three seasons, the team that has topped this mini league in the Premier League, has not gone on to win the title (team in second has won the title on all occasions). Chelsea in 2013-‘14 provided the classic example, when they went undefeated against the other teams in the top 6 but still finished third. Further, in 2015-‘16 even though Liverpool got as many points (17) as eventual champions Leicester City, and Manchester United topped this mini league with 20 points, Manchester United and Liverpool only managed to finish fifth and eighth respectively. Similarly, Barcelona topped this mini league in 2013-14 with 8 points, but Atletico Madrid ended up being champions even though they had only 6 points, two fewer than Barcelona.
To top the league, you need to win the six-pointers
The six pointers matter more when deciding the champions than when deciding the teams getting relegated. There have been several instances when teams have got very few points against their fellow relegation threatened opponents but have still managed to survive.
On the other side of the table, if you want to lift the trophy at the end of the season, you have to get positive results against your opponents. You cannot wait around for the other teams to do your dirty work and still manage to be called champions. But managers need to remember that this is a marathon, and not a race. It is not a knockout competition. You don’t just need to beat the top guns, you need to beat everyone else as well.
The term six pointer is overhyped. Treat each match on its merit. No game is more important than the other. Beating your direct rivals will not guarantee your survival, nor will it guarantee you the trophy.