On Monday afternoon, the cricket world waited with bated breath for the Board of Control for Cricket in India to announce its squad for the 2017 Champions Trophy. The International Cricket Council and different administrations wanted to see if things proceed smoothly, despite the board’s SGM making it clear that they didn’t want to hamper India’s participation in the tournament. Things can always take a U-turn in less than 24 hours; such is the game of power and control in the BCCI’s corridors.

You could sense a collective sigh of relief from the ICC and even the broadcasters Star Sports when BCCI secretary Amitabh Choudhary started reading out a full-strength squad. Then, it was about a billion fans as familiar names were crossed off the list one by one. The source of their expectations – of an unfamiliar name, of a hint of adventurism in selection – is the on-going IPL season. Rooting for the underdog (read domestic talent doing well in celebrated T20 cricket) is a familiar theme in sport, after all.

“You haven’t opted for any young cricketers? It is the same routine? Do IPL performances mean nothing?” These questions were put forth to chief selector MSK Prasad. “Are Jasprit Bumrah and Hardik Pandya not young cricketers?” he replied.

For people hunting a celebrated IPL selection, it was easy to overlook the selection of these two 23-year-olds. In this hullabaloo though, the actual surprising bit was missed out by almost everyone.

Only two spinners

India are going to the Champions Trophy with only two full-time spinners – R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja. It is a rare occurrence that the selectors send forth a team without a back-up spinner. Certainly in 2013, Amit Mishra accompanied both of them in what turned out to be a pleasantly surprising triumphant campaign. So, what has brought about this change in thinking that the balance of India’s bowling attack has shifted from spin to pace, all of a sudden?

On the face of it, it seems a sound decision. Ashwin-Jadeja is the most fearsome spin pairing in world cricket today. Over the course of past year, they have stamped their authority on every opposition they have come across. The obvious argument herein is that they have only played Test cricket predominantly, for they were rested against New Zealand for the five ODIs. For the selectors, it was a tough call – they had to manage the workload of their primary bowlers in a long 17-Test season, and missing a few ODIs and T20Is (against England) was the only option.

In that light, MSK Prasad was happy that Ashwin got to sit out the IPL (he thanked Rising Pune Supergiant for allowing him time to recover from sports hernia), whilst Jadeja also missed the first 10 days of action for Gujarat Lions. Undoubtedly, any rest for these tired bowlers is welcome. Statistics, however, do not share Prasad’s confidence in his spinners.

Ravindra Jadeja and R Ashwin are India's only full-time spin options for the Champions Trophy (AFP)

Jadeja played only five ODIs in 2016 (Australia) and then featured in three against England early this year. At home, he picked up four wickets at a strike-rate of 45 and economy 5.23. Away, last year, he managed only three wickets at 5.35, with his strike-rate inflated to 96 as India lost 4-1 Down Under. Meanwhile, Ashwin has only played five ODIs in this same interim. He picked three wickets against England in as many matches at an economy of 6.96 and strike-rate of 54, and two wickets in as many matches against Australia at economy 6.76 and strike-rate 57.

The worrying bit herein is Ashwin did not complete his quota of overs in three of those five matches. In Australia, he did feature in the latter half of the series, as India struggled with their bowling combination and failed to contain the opposition’s batting line-up (Australia scored 300-plus in four out of five matches, and won chasing 290-plus in the other instance).

So, the questions here to ask are: Do the selectors think that two spinners are enough because the team might end up playing only one of them in English conditions? Did captain Virat Kohli ask for more resources in batting as well as pace to make up for this deficit? If you are going to concede 300 – which India have done without trouble in seven of their last 13 ODIs – you might as well do it with an additional batsman/pace all-rounder available, seems to be the thinking.

“We did discuss Kuldeep Yadav, but because of his quality and not because of Ashwin’s form,” said Prasad, explaining why they went in with an extra batsman instead of a wrist/leg spinner. “He missed out narrowly because team selection is not one person’s suggestion. The selectors have taken a collective call.” It puts the focus squarely on India’s pace attack, and in particular, one player – Hardik Pandya.

Focus on pace

There cannot be an iota of doubt that India’s pace attack has gained in leaps and bounds over the past couple years. This transitional process – from spin to pace when playing overseas – started some time around the 2015 World Cup. Back then, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami and Mohit Sharma had delivered the goods. Yadav has kicked on thereafter, becoming India’s spearhead across formats. Shami displayed clever changes in his pace and technique during his return from injury in West Indies and at home (against New Zealand and England), before he needed time off again. Slowly, he too has recuperated and is now back in the ODI mix for the first time since 2015.

Jasprit Bumrah's death-bowling prowess will be crucial to India's chances in the Champions Trophy (Reuters)

Bhuvneshwar Kumar has followed a near-similar curve as Shami, sitting out for most part in 2015-’16, playing only a bits-and-pieces role as per conditions thereafter. Over the last season, though, he has gained massively as the team think-tank has managed the pacers’ workload, and unleashed Kumar whenever the situation has called for it. Given his IPL form for Sunrisers Hyderabad, Kohli will be keen to hand him the new ball in Birmingham against Pakistan on June 4.

Then, there is boy-wonder Bumrah, whose pin-point death bowling and accurate yorkers must be any captain’s wet dreams come true. Together, these four pacers will be instrumental to India’s Champions Trophy fortunes, especially given the lightweight spin attack. Again, it is very possible that only one of Ashwin/Jadeja could appear in the playing 11 with three pacers, particularly as the team management now banks on Pandya to deliver an incisive balance to the lower-middle order.

When he opened the bowling in the first ODI against New Zealand (Dharamsala) back in October, Pandya also added an extra dimension to this Indian attack. For eons, the think-tank had been looking for a genuine pace all-rounder – someone who could bowl those extra overs whilst batting no higher than Nos 6 or 7, providing the finishing flourish.

Pandya provided that answer when he made his T20I debut in January 2016 against Australia at Adelaide. But to get in contention for the longer formats, perhaps he needed to lose, and then regain, his way during the ensuing summer. An indifferent IPL last year, followed by a successful India-A tour Down Under with Rahul Dravid seems to have helped out in this regard.

The word ‘pace’ ahead of ‘all-rounder’ is quite significant herein. India aren’t often troubled in limited-overs’ cricket at home, as their batting line-up is strong enough to overhaul any particular target. Overseas, though, this job becomes onerous for you cannot chase 300-plus consistently with ease. This is where Dhoni felt the requisite need for a pace-bowling all-rounder ahead of the 2015 ODI World Cup. He, along with the selectors, invested in Stuart Binny but that experiment fell flat.

“From his debut in Australia to opening the bowling now, it shows how we have groomed Hardik over the past year,” said Prasad. “Undoubtedly, it adds an element of balance to our bowling attack.”

Punting on Pandya is not just the second running of that pace all-rounder experiment. By axing the third spinner option, the selectors and team management have put all their eggs in this one basket. On the line is another ODI World Cup, this time under Kohli in 2019 (in England).

This Champions Trophy, then, is a dry run for India’s plans in more ways than one.