After the first race of the 2017 Formula One season, fans and pundits alike dreamed of a finally having a competitive season.

The intense rivalry between Mercedes and Ferrari, the two best cars on the grid was always there. As was the evident one between their two top drivers – four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel and three-time champion Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes had dominated the last three seasons with a far superior car, but Hamilton had been pipped by teammate Nico Rosberg in the final race last season. Ferrari had fallen short in the past, but their pre-season form was promising.

It all came to head in the season-opening Australian GP when Vettel took Ferrari to the top after a win-less 2016 season while pole-sitter Hamilton finished second by a good seven seconds. The roles were reversed in the second race in China and thus began an intriguing first quarter of a season.

A possibility that has never occurred in the last few seasons, especially in the two since Vettel had joined Ferarri, suddenly looked probable. That the Mercedes car was beatable, that Lewis Hamilton could be denied a world title again, even after Nico Rosberg’s retirement. And for the sentimental fan, a chance that a German driver-red Ferrari car combination could be atop the standings again.

This possibility that Ferrari finally had a championship-winning chance really took root after the Monaco GP in May, the sixth of the season. In a controversial race for the Italian team, Vettel raced ahead of teammate Kimi Raikkonen to win and opened up a 25-points gap in the title race between him at Hamilton – 25 points is a huge margin given how the title race has looked in the last two seasons.

But Hamilton doesn’t give up easy, not with a car like Mercedes. It didn’t help that Ferrari was beginning to face technical problems of their own. The gap between the two steadily reduced till Hamilton finally broke even after his home race, the British GP in July, where Vettel finished seventh.

Graphic by Anand Katakam

As the graph shows, the race was still neck-to-neck in the next three races till Vettel seemed to reach the point of no return in Singapore where he did not finish for the first time this season. The race was a strange one: Hamilton said he needed a “miracle” to win after finishing fifth in qualifying to Vettel’s blistering pole. What followed was nothing short of miraculous for the Briton as both Ferarri cars crashed out in the first lap in a bizarre collision, Hamilton won and then said that the spirit of Ayrton Senna guided him to the “shock” win.

Spirit or no, this certainly seemed the beginning of the end as Vettel steadily spiraled downward. Car troubles followed him in Malaysia where he had to start from the back of the grid, but managed to finish fourth. In Japan, a supposed spark plug problem ended his race, and all but gifted Hamilton the title. And with the Briton notching his ninth win of the season at last weekend’s United States GP, the result is now near-certain.

With three races remaining, Hamilton already leads Vettel by 66 points and is in touching distance of equalling the German’s record of four world championship titles. In fact, he can assure his world title by just finishing in the top five at this weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix. While the circuit in Mexico might trouble Mercedes, it seems unlikely that it will change the driver standings.